MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53d5e2c4d5d1d6db7849a4cdcd3290ce4b2454282c3fab950e28cedd79d300b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 3,927$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 72c | 3,674$2,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.34 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 38c | 2,098$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.26 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 49c | 594.84$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.34 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 51c | 588.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.23 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 74c | 546.26$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.15 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 503$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Over | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 481.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 21c | 442$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Under | 67c | 350$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Under | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 73c | 201$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Under | 73c | 136$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 73c | 119.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Under | 73c | 77.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 51c | 75.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 72c | 72.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 28c | 72.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Under | 73c | 57.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Under | 73c | 57.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 63c | 47.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Under | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Under | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba17…5c67backed Under | 72c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 74c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.