MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8d02e5c863b13c4a24c0abf6b666f3fcca7ea05b7a61f38ce6bfa27674100f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 2,415$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.54 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 2,160$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 1,675$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.5 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 1,080$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 775.56$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 757.82$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.65 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 495$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 390.81$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.81 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 347$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.39 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 248.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 222.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 205.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…a1d3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 204.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 198.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 173.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 134.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 114.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 108.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 77.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 68.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 65.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 61.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 54.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 45.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 40.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Texas Rangers | 72c | 40.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 38.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 30.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 26.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Texas Rangers | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37a6…6684backed Texas Rangers | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 55 | 81.8%45 W · 10 L | +11.4wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Texas Rangers | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Texas Rangers | 73c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.