Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
James Madison Dukes vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53e045bd943b3b626936a5b2bff9c73cf686ed3cd5d36c0be38becb726b8c6ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshall Thundering Herdof James Madison Dukes, Marshall Thundering Herd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 52c | 937.33$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.82 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked James Madison Dukes | 29c | 631.55$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.31 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 48c | 577.73$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.67 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed James Madison Dukes | 27c | 493$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.71 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…37e2backed James Madison Dukes | 72c | 450.86$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +225.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed James Madison Dukes | 31c | 405.66$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.75 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 44c | 354.9$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.01 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 69c | 306.41$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed James Madison Dukes | 8c | 270.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed James Madison Dukes | 15c | 218$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked James Madison Dukes | 80c | 212.18$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed James Madison Dukes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 8.8%13 W · 134 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed James Madison Dukes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked James Madison Dukes | 55c | 106.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 56c | 105.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed James Madison Dukes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 55c | 91.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 73c | 85.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed James Madison Dukes | 49c | 78.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed James Madison Dukes | 35c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 42c | 66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 39c | 59.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 42c | 59.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 235 | 44.7%105 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked James Madison Dukes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 69c | 47.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 55c | 40.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed James Madison Dukes | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 66c | 36.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…555abacked James Madison Dukes | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Madison Dukes vs. Marshall Thundering Herdthis page
- James Madison Dukes vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 149.5Under won
- James Madison Dukes vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 150.5Under won
- James Madison Dukes vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 151.5Under won
- James Madison Dukes vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 152.5Under won
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-4.5)Marshall Thundering Herd won
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-5.5)James Madison Dukes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.