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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 23?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,517
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,517 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes26c1,560$406 inLost-$406.0735629.8%106 W · 250 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes10c1,094$107 inLost-$107.2410,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes4c725.69$29 inLost-$28.621,00014.8%148 W · 852 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked No75c700$525 inWon+$17524160.2%145 W · 96 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c517.03$12 inLost-$11.93,42631.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L-38.9wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01ce…27a2backed Yes5c463.27$25 inLost-$25.4857036.7%209 W · 361 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf888…9668backed Yes18c399.98$72 inLost-$724228.6%12 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes17c365.38$63 inLost-$63.3873138.7%283 W · 448 L+36.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa16…b066backed Yes30c300$90 inLost-$902045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes9c294.26$28 inLost-$27.6360032%192 W · 408 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes10c293.15$31 inLost-$30.758018.8%15 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes12c287.79$34 inLost-$33.7510,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes20c251.25$49 inLost-$49.249332.9%162 W · 331 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes13c242.98$32 inLost-$32.359938.4%38 W · 61 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No76c242.3$185 inWon+$57.1212,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes5c219.63$11 inLost-$11.1854238.9%211 W · 331 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes15c200$29 inLost-$29.063548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes8c199.07$16 inLost-$16.4134222.2%76 W · 266 L-19.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked Yes10c140$14 inLost-$1431657.6%182 W · 134 L+0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…8e3cbacked No80c132.74$106 inWon+$26.928763.2%55 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes18c128$23 inLost-$22.7636422.8%83 W · 281 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes10c118.42$12 inLost-$12.0720710.1%21 W · 186 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0123…d399backed Yes13c117.82$15 inLost-$15.063125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No64c107.59$69 inWon+$38.4917436.2%63 W · 111 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes11c105.64$12 inLost-$11.747532%24 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes24c102.3$24 inLost-$24.2250123.8%119 W · 382 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…c7a8backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$102458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd12a…e611backed No80c100$80 inWon+$20683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes13c99.99$13 inLost-$1345630%137 W · 319 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c97.29$11 inLost-$11.297,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes16c80.2$13 inLost-$13.0411925.2%30 W · 89 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes22c67.41$15 inLost-$1513027.7%36 W · 94 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed Yes22c63.64$14 inLost-$1425564.7%165 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No65c50$33 inWon+$17.52,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24d…947abacked Yes20c50$10 inLost-$102334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c32$23 inWon+$8.645,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No75c21.63$16 inWon+$5.392,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf517…a30cbacked No71c20$14 inWon+$5.81968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x414a…253ebacked No79c15$12 inWon+$3.16675.8%50 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No72c15$11 inWon+$4.2549259.6%293 W · 199 L+22.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No78c13.4$10 inWon+$3.012,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.