Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b5b2c71ea9d7b59ec538a4f2538857b69f0caa93d2d55a33d701dcd6289828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 5c | 2,961$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.72 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 28c | 542.66$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.53 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 33c | 505.95$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.96 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 469.06$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.29 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 20c | 442.63$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 364 | 22.8%83 W · 281 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 438.81$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.47 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 63c | 410.72$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.37 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 34c | 400.3$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes | 3c | 360.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 34c | 349.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 332.05$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.73 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b16…29e2backed Yes | 36c | 259.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 206.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 61c | 189.86$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 70c | 172.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…4839backed Yes | 31c | 167.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 33c | 153.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 68c | 152.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 65c | 151.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 143$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 139.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 35c | 139.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 33c | 135.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 66c | 134.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 342 | 22.2%76 W · 266 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 132$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 50c | 131.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 57c | 120.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 68c | 117.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 48c | 100.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 522 | 22.4%117 W · 405 L | +27.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 239 | 33.5%80 W · 159 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 248 | 31.9%79 W · 169 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 24c | 86.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 35c | 86.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 66c | 86.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 30c | 84.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 28c | 78.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 17c | 76.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 30c | 75.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 74.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 67c | 73.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 66.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 64.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 65c | 60.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 70c | 56.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 71c | 56.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 52.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c2…a11abacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 34c | 45.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 67c | 45.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 66c | 45.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…d52fbacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 43.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 37c | 41.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed No | 62c | 40.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 52c | 38.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…92d3backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 245 | 68.2%167 W · 78 L | +19.9wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 29.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 72c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked No | 62c | 25.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 64c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 68c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 21.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 51c | 20.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 51c | 19.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 19.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.