Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c43f2eb701ca405f56ef66dd9dcdf953d134aaa8063996fe00aa1876c3ef7b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 55c | 1,406$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.74 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,035$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.09 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 4c | 896.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 57c | 610.19$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 38c | 571.03$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.38 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 512.33$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.08 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 58c | 500.13$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.45 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 25c | 500$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.73 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 59c | 499.98$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…85ddbacked No | 62c | 477.55$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 27c | 462.09$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 461.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 50c | 458.69$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.41 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 44c | 405.92$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.11 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.42 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 351.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.94 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 326.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.9 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 61c | 306.33$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed No | 6c | 290$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 34c | 215.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.93 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 25c | 212.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 45c | 200.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.35 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…5909backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 42c | 192$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.97 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 44c | 172.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 74c | 152.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 342 | 22.2%76 W · 266 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 66c | 151.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 148.65$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 66c | 147.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 61c | 146.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 141.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 66c | 135$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…4839backed Yes | 70c | 128.12$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 58c | 127.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 37c | 119.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 39c | 117$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 12c | 115.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 43c | 111.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 37c | 103.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 61c | 95.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 73c | 87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 62c | 85.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 36c | 83.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 82.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 29c | 79.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 79.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 43c | 65.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed No | 63c | 64.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 80c | 62.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 57.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 27c | 57.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 56.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 55.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 73c | 54.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 40c | 54.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 75c | 53.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 52.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 51.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 50.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 164 | 36%59 W · 105 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…d52fbacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 44.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 43.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 40.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 40.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,032 | 31.3%949 W · 2,083 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 39.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 72c | 38.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 55c | 36.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe610…7ce9backed Yes | 38c | 30.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 241 | 60.2%145 W · 96 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 686 | 58.6%402 W · 284 L | +51.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 43c | 27.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 56c | 26.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 58c | 25.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 57c | 24.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 53c | 23.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.