Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x540f97bb2e64cc1fcff2151d2a5b804c4895555c5fff964bd2382e2c66ffd70c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 857.35$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.88 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 34c | 542.4$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.71 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 536.47$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 70c | 494.07$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.07 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 421.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 7c | 244.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 223.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 198.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 37c | 169.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 163.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 149.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 129.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 76c | 124.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 68c | 113.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 63c | 107.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 104$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 100.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 50c | 99.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 92.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 37c | 90.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 88.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 62c | 85.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 77c | 68.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 56.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 67c | 55.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 54.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 52.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…c577backed Yes | 56c | 42.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 33.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 70c | 29.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 26.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 47c | 23.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…f3a4backed No | 66c | 21.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 66c | 20.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.