Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5412991c90294f5cd372582685b55be55c0763dfbec02cf2b7898d0b1a3c3210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 20c | 716.7$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.37 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 383.46$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 236.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 210.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 184.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.67 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 25c | 174.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.29 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 160.59$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 152.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 112.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 61c | 112.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 109.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 105.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 34c | 96.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 62c | 93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 26c | 88.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 72c | 85.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 71c | 85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 79c | 80$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 76c | 79.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 67c | 74.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 25c | 70.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 76c | 67.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 70c | 67.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 64.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34dd…7961backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 70c | 43.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 37.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 36.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 49c | 36.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 52c | 34.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 68c | 32.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 31.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 28.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 26.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 26.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 47c | 25.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 44c | 24.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 67c | 23.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 50c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 77c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 80c | 13.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.