Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x542079804791a486707b3c14e1c22ca827af9addd7ec8580743f5950ae951d47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 48c | 9,700$4,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,656 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 52c | 9,681$5,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,646.85 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 58c | 7,179$4,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,991.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 49c | 6,189$3,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,154.03 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Yes | 51c | 4,384$2,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,236 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Yes | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…7708backed Yes | 33c | 1,900$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 1,873$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.85 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,804$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.01 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 51c | 1,479$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.45 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Yes | 52c | 1,427$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.04 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 751.13$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.9 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…a07fbacked Yes | 35c | 686.82$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked No | 55c | 570.54$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Yes | 37c | 540.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 40c | 479.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Yes | 48c | 468.4$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.16 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 47c | 450$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 34c | 399.85$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.96 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 69c | 392.69$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.89 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 62c | 335.72$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.04 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 50c | 274$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 40c | 252$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…af4abacked Yes | 35c | 250$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Yes | 41c | 224$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…126cbacked Yes | 49c | 204$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…3d0ebacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 49c | 191.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.45 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 51c | 184.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 35c | 171.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…bc8cbacked No | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd751…58bdbacked Yes | 51c | 145.1$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 56c | 125.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…b190backed Yes | 22c | 123$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 51c | 116.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 49c | 112.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…db8abacked Yes | 48c | 105.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Yes | 40c | 101.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…58fdbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 49c | 97.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked No | 51c | 96.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 49c | 85.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed No | 66c | 71.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 51c | 67.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 49c | 66.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 41c | 61.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…0d10backed Yes | 41c | 59.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Yes | 42c | 49.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Yes | 36c | 46.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 23c | 46.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 47c | 40.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…4f8ebacked No | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 51c | 35.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed No | 61c | 24.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 53c | 21.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…4c1dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-02-13?this page
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-02-13?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.