Premier League · resolved market
Birmingham City FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x542265fd15c41221aed98d52f83fb5d0c4214263d1aeebb4b289b695d6bfd6ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,946 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 20c | 1,262$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016 | 133 | 27.1%36 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…5a8abacked Under | 27c | 809.71$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 610.09$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.95 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…3bc6backed Under | 27c | 447.53$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…dc79backed Over | 7c | 326.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 26c | 322.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.83 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…56f3backed Over | 73c | 315.4$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…e90ebacked Over | 73c | 275.74$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 73c | 273.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 182 | 65.9%120 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 62c | 265.79$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…8925backed Over | 73c | 218.57$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…18c4backed Under | 27c | 183.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.06 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebf…6356backed Over | 73c | 174.47$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…c8d1backed Under | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 75c | 169.93$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 53c | 154.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4e…2111backed Over | 73c | 137.79$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41e…f01fbacked Over | 73c | 135.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 71c | 124.71$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 71c | 101.85$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…37d5backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 77c | 90.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 26c | 54.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…74fcbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked Over | 44c | 48.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 34c | 47.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 72c | 41.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 207 | 63.8%132 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 40.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 27c | 38.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…d302backed Under | 28c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 67c | 29.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 73c | 25.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…37d5backed Under | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Birmingham City FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Birmingham City FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)Queens Park Rangers FC won
- Spread: Queens Park Rangers FC (-1.5)Birmingham City FC won
- Spread: Queens Park Rangers FC (-2.5)Birmingham City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.