Tennis · resolved market
ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x542ce0642fca959f64055bad9564c3df183dd69c5ac1f82a6f0bec35091ce656
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marianna Shikhanovaof Ke Ren, Marianna Shikhanova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ke Ren | 6c | 2,932$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.99 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…de6bbacked Ke Ren | 17c | 1,422$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 312 | 37.8%118 W · 194 L | -24.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Marianna Shikhanova | 55c | 1,090$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.59 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ke Ren | 29c | 707.45$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.81 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ke Ren | 46c | 637.42$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.4 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Ke Ren | 43c | 562.58$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.69 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Marianna Shikhanova | 61c | 546.97$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Ke Ren | 6c | 468.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Marianna Shikhanova | 59c | 431.46$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.7 | 464 | 35.3%164 W · 300 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Ke Ren | 13c | 356$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…7475backed Marianna Shikhanova | 68c | 349.94$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Marianna Shikhanova | 80c | 336.94$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Ke Ren | 13c | 270.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 403 | 50.6%204 W · 199 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Marianna Shikhanova | 52c | 253.04$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Ke Ren | 19c | 223.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Ke Ren | 15c | 174.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ke Ren | 46c | 173.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Marianna Shikhanova | 77c | 130.92$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Ke Ren | 17c | 107.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Marianna Shikhanova | 76c | 105.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…0b12backed Ke Ren | 52c | 103.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…51b3backed Marianna Shikhanova | 70c | 99.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 353 | 60.9%215 W · 138 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Ke Ren | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Marianna Shikhanova | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Ke Ren | 38c | 75.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…2b19backed Marianna Shikhanova | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe022…7d0fbacked Ke Ren | 52c | 50.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Ke Ren | 38c | 42.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Marianna Shikhanova | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 300 | 40%120 W · 180 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…1b41backed Marianna Shikhanova | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…8745backed Marianna Shikhanova | 79c | 38.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Ke Ren | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 234 | 27.4%64 W · 170 L | -40.1wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Ke Ren | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 37.2%73 W · 123 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Marianna Shikhanova | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Ke Ren | 47c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Ke Ren | 46c | 24.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Marianna Shikhanova | 69c | 21.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Marianna Shikhanova | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF Maanshan: Ke Ren vs Marianna Shikhanovathis page
- Ke Ren vs. Marianna Shikhanova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Ren vs. Shikhanova: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Ren vs ShikhanovaShikhanova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.