Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Xavier Musketeers vs. Marquette Golden Eagles: O/U 156.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54369d3213bbbe59ec5761423561348f0285acbdb37a549940ca5b33c1e16cae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 55c | 1,833$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.48 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 1,525$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.91 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 55c | 248.67$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.77 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Under | 47c | 213.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 44c | 161.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Over | 55c | 141$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Over | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Over | 55c | 81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Under | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Under | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Under | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Over | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Under | 47c | 32.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Under | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Under | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 56c | 23.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Xavier Musketeers vs. Marquette Golden Eagles: O/U 156.5this page
- Spread: Marquette Golden Eagles (-4.5)Xavier Musketeers won
- Xavier Musketeers vs. Marquette Golden EaglesMarquette Golden Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.