Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x543c480fb6d25827df3e3dd7323e331277b1d27af140faf4ae5775c4ebaf1842
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 239.65$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 176.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 40c | 143.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 141.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 64c | 110.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 37c | 104.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 103.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 86.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 84.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 38c | 78.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 49c | 75.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 34c | 75.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 75.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 27c | 73.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 74c | 65.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 64.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 54c | 64.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 57.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 53.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 62c | 48.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 44.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 75c | 41.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 38.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 33.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 30.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 27.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 46c | 27.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…a97ebacked Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 60c | 23.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 53c | 20.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 53c | 20.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 62c | 19.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 63c | 18.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.