Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaee2a38283f3ff5f0f70235c16a30330c9755f3f1e9d31b690a95ec73333e92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 609.23$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.62 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 40c | 553.27$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.45 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 242.63$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 209.7$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 182.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 177.32$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 156.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 148.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 122.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 101.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 70c | 97.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 95.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 69c | 93.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 30c | 74.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 68.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 57.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 56.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 50.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 50.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 54c | 47.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3476…8b53backed Yes | 33c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 44.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 40.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 39.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 28c | 38.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 68c | 33.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 33.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 48c | 33.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 27.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 76c | 26.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 26.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 74c | 24.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 77c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 76c | 13.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.