MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5474eef9602cf0211ce3e5f1bff217439446771d1f74994953c520f65f603889
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,540 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…1d79backed New York Yankees | 65c | 2,439$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.43 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 1,224$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.79 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 999.98$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed New York Yankees | 58c | 998$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.97 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed New York Yankees | 58c | 745.27$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.01 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…242dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 721.35$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 607.43$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.45 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed New York Yankees | 61c | 489.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.47 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 405.93$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 399.98$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.59 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 347.62$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.29 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed New York Yankees | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 272.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.51 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 240.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 234$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 62c | 226.32$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 8c | 207.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Baltimore Orioles | 12c | 194.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed New York Yankees | 61c | 169.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 160$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 149.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed New York Yankees | 56c | 132$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked New York Yankees | 57c | 108.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 101.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 100.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed New York Yankees | 74c | 97$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked New York Yankees | 72c | 97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 78.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 77.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 76.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 75.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 75.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed New York Yankees | 58c | 71.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked New York Yankees | 57c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Yankees | 61c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 61.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Baltimore Orioles | 32c | 51.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 51.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 44.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 38.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed New York Yankees | 54c | 37.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 35.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked New York Yankees | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed New York Yankees | 56c | 30.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed New York Yankees | 68c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked New York Yankees | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed New York Yankees | 75c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.