World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x547fee7ce34ec6a2bb35972ce79f57d3fbf8907208e62b1f0575631e0fde1fb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 11c | 468.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 10c | 366.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 231.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ca…4305backed Yes | 37c | 226.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 217.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 140.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 123.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 91.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 72c | 89.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 38c | 73.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 59.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 74c | 58.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 76c | 51.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 69c | 42.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 34.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 72c | 31.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 22.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 13.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.