Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54f8b90df229830006fc0d0983c0c1ace1468b7fa2f32d41973899c11031a2e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 40c | 1,850$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.34 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 59c | 1,142$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.4 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 36c | 648.27$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.81 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 57c | 307.69$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.78 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 282.45$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 45c | 280$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked Yes | 40c | 248.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…1cbebacked Yes | 47c | 212$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 204.91$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 202.73$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 138.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 41c | 116.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 100.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 64c | 69.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 66.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 62.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 49c | 50.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…739cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Yes | 35c | 40.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 56c | 39.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 39.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 38.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 39c | 37.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 43c | 30.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…724cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on August 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.