College Football · resolved market
Spread: Iowa (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5524d002d03dc3981022d95d12e5d926c706e603891ac9d822dc3dbef00ac725
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowaof Iowa, Minnesota
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8058…d023backed Iowa | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Iowa | 50c | 10,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,049.99 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Minnesota | 50c | 8,621$4,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,306.68 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Minnesota | 50c | 5,467$2,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,755.14 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Minnesota | 51c | 2,479$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.87 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Minnesota | 50c | 2,082$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Iowa | 50c | 1,750$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Minnesota | 50c | 1,349$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.5 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Minnesota | 51c | 981.22$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Iowa | 48c | 910$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.2 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Minnesota | 50c | 682$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.86 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Iowa | 54c | 221.27$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Minnesota | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Minnesota | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Iowa | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Iowa | 50c | 109.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Minnesota | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…3e83backed Iowa | 53c | 47.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…0ce6backed Minnesota | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Minnesota | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa (-8.5)this page
- Minnesota vs. IowaIowa won
- O/U 38.5Over won
- Spread: Iowa (-9.5)Iowa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.