Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5538425d501fbb6aa98439a8049e6f06a0932dbd7dd81d9ff3a6b8def51fd219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 62c | 631.64$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.23 | 413 | 66.6%275 W · 138 L | +36.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 289$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.57 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 21c | 269.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 32c | 248.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…2262backed No | 28c | 239.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4118…d2ffbacked Yes | 58c | 215.44$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 24c | 173.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 141.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 119.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90b…da7cbacked No | 22c | 97.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed No | 14c | 96.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 34c | 95.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 65c | 94.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 87.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 84.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 38c | 81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Yes | 65c | 70.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 44c | 67.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 57.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 470 | 47.2%222 W · 248 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 36c | 48.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 50c | 48.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 47.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 42c | 46.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 46.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 24c | 45.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 42.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 27c | 40.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 75c | 32.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 39c | 30.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +42.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 79c | 26.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 51c | 24.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 71c | 23.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 74c | 21.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 56c | 20.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.