Mls · resolved market
Will New York City FC win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x553fce8f1e0ae03e631a68dba729ef5d357e7cc13c94c1d8ff70b1d580fd0290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,266 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 36c | 1,833$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.89 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 18c | 1,164$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.44 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 77c | 1,024$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.43 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 21c | 614.59$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 21c | 578.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 64c | 523.61$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 38c | 422.69$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 19c | 333.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 5c | 291.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 8c | 253.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 79c | 252.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 65c | 213.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 79c | 201$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 21c | 198.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 60c | 157.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 21c | 148.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 76c | 137.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 19c | 118.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 39c | 116$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 61c | 110.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 20c | 102.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 64c | 102.81$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 21c | 100.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 65c | 85.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 19c | 66.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 28c | 63.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 79c | 60.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 62c | 59.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…1d46backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…1df7backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae86…a294backed Yes | 63c | 31.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 37c | 31.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc3…72b2backed Yes | 63c | 29.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Yes | 64c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 76c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025f…25cfbacked Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb9…54b5backed Yes | 80c | 12.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will New York City FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.