Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x554f4d0694f088f6f1c536ab766a39843f3839f3b399be7e07299f105581795d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bellucciof Fritz, Bellucci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Bellucci | 47c | 1,255$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.02 | 2,204 | 36.9%813 W · 1,391 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Bellucci | 48c | 600$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.93 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Fritz | 52c | 577.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c06…aa42backed Fritz | 53c | 467.87$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Fritz | 53c | 376.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…51dcbacked Fritz | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Fritz | 52c | 273.47$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Bellucci | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Fritz | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Fritz | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Fritz | 43c | 167.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Bellucci | 46c | 139.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Bellucci | 57c | 126.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Bellucci | 52c | 100.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Bellucci | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Fritz | 44c | 92.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Fritz | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bellucci | 57c | 79.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Bellucci | 48c | 76.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Bellucci | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…3738backed Fritz | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed Bellucci | 58c | 24.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bb…ef52backed Fritz | 50c | 22.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8123…fbbdbacked Fritz | 52c | 19.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)this page
- Bellucci vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Bellucci vs FritzBellucci won
- Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor FritzTaylor Fritz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.