CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a9f4aa6d9998da55cb182d455904871d700dfb8b6a8554b54541279be3243d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eternal Fireof 100 Thieves, Eternal Fire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x904e…0becbacked 100 Thieves | 19c | 1,583$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.66 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…ca3fbacked 100 Thieves | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 358 | 47.5%170 W · 188 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Eternal Fire | 37c | 690.74$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.15 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Eternal Fire | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.3 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed Eternal Fire | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 230 | 72.6%167 W · 63 L | +27.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked 100 Thieves | 12c | 295$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…d609backed 100 Thieves | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Eternal Fire | 60c | 176.92$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed 100 Thieves | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 364 | 46.7%170 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…0c65backed Eternal Fire | 79c | 124.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed 100 Thieves | 66c | 115.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 375 | 57.3%215 W · 160 L | -16.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked 100 Thieves | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…1ad3backed 100 Thieves | 54c | 53.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…186ebacked 100 Thieves | 71c | 53.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 333 | 62.2%207 W · 126 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…588dbacked 100 Thieves | 40c | 50.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -6.1wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…5c9cbacked 100 Thieves | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…7cbcbacked 100 Thieves | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked Eternal Fire | 62c | 26.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 503 | 58.6%295 W · 208 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Eternal Fire | 60c | 25.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed 100 Thieves | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…9fa1backed Eternal Fire | 54c | 20.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed 100 Thieves | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 338 | 69.8%236 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7084…2af1backed Eternal Fire | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - IEM Beijing: Global Open Qualifier PlayoffsEternal Fire won
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.