Cricket · resolved market
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs Indonesia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55bdde6f829e330c6d934ec2983a0aa924b12c1262ae52f7ec3469d9af4b1ca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Japanof Japan, Indonesia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Indonesia | 12c | 2,388$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.14 | 636 | 46.4%295 W · 341 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Indonesia | 15c | 1,700$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.47 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Indonesia | 15c | 1,485$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Indonesia | 19c | 999.28$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.44 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Indonesia | 12c | 923.12$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 569 | 37.1%211 W · 358 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Japan | 79c | 815.12$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.11 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Indonesia | 10c | 767$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 310 | 50%155 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e7a3backed Indonesia | 2c | 666.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 187 | 13.4%25 W · 162 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Indonesia | 18c | 621$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 249 | 40.6%101 W · 148 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Indonesia | 11c | 609.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 679 | 31.4%213 W · 466 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Japan | 79c | 541.63$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Japan | 71c | 499.97$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Japan | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed Japan | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Japan | 78c | 385.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Indonesia | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…b8d7backed Indonesia | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Indonesia | 12c | 279.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd69…91e4backed Japan | 72c | 270.83$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Indonesia | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Indonesia | 12c | 202.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 319 | 40.1%128 W · 191 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Indonesia | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Indonesia | 11c | 190.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 271 | 41.3%112 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Japan | 80c | 155$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6b…b245backed Japan | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Indonesia | 29c | 134.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Japan | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…43d5backed Indonesia | 22c | 114$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Indonesia | 30c | 102.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Indonesia | 24c | 100.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 419 | 47.5%199 W · 220 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…820fbacked Indonesia | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 187 | 29.4%55 W · 132 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…6b5fbacked Japan | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…0677backed Japan | 76c | 72.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…facfbacked Indonesia | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…c775backed Indonesia | 17c | 62.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231a…08b8backed Japan | 75c | 37.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Japan | 79c | 29.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Japan | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Japan | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.