Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55c4f82164c5327e31ce158ae1f097ead55f59a744f11cef1a7e37c9cad3292a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 2,754$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.87 | 6,028 | 46.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L | +50.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 63c | 2,381$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…69dbbacked Over | 46c | 2,150$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.99 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 44c | 1,111$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.36 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 41c | 731.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.71 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 74c | 407.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 386.97$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.27 | 1,529 | 54.9%840 W · 689 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 38c | 348.46$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 2,585 | 40%1,035 W · 1,550 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 53c | 299.98$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.99 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 61c | 160.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…807ebacked Under | 49c | 138.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 113.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,796 | 50.2%902 W · 894 L | +30.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeff…42fbbacked Over | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Over | 38c | 88.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 86.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 1,266 | 50.2%635 W · 631 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 71c | 70.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 41c | 58.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 280 | 40.4%113 W · 167 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 37c | 49.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 54c | 35.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 67c | 33.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 1,337 | 56.5%756 W · 581 L | +64.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…3630backed Over | 37c | 28.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 76c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 785 | 55.7%437 W · 348 L | +38.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Under | 56c | 25.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Under | 58c | 17.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.