Asian League · resolved market
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59499bef9849261e4b9a1ed19b402cdaad03979d63037448d867f53f325f4dcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 40c | 4,485$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.56 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 20c | 2,995$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 63c | 2,837$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.96 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 2,247$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.11 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,649$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.72 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 63c | 1,606$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.35 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…1b67backed Over | 47c | 809.06$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.91 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 53c | 776.4$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.91 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 62c | 741.82$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.14 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 47c | 722.5$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 4c | 705.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +13.5wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 427.65$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.36 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f3…1732backed Over | 33c | 399.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 62c | 366.73$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 51c | 334.94$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.82 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 34c | 294.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 48c | 288.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 48c | 287.23$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 23c | 232.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2080…6d80backed Under | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 74c | 149.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 54c | 90.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…a686backed Under | 66c | 83.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 26c | 76.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 26c | 72.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 47c | 69.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…6c00backed Under | 75c | 66.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 47c | 63.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x504b…b939backed Under | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Under | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 52c | 49.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…49b7backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…8b53backed Under | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 59c | 22.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…f599backed Under | 79c | 16.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed Under | 71c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.