Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55e05201b2143ed0714175055c72c4c86afe4950a3f8fe9d65d955401ac121a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,287$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.58 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 2c | 874.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed Yes | 43c | 495.62$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 9c | 404.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.66 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed No | 13c | 300$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…9750backed Yes | 74c | 271.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 16c | 142.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked No | 35c | 129.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed No | 54c | 111.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 74 | 73%54 W · 20 L | +12.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc2…518dbacked No | 36c | 55.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 38c | 52.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…e414backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed Yes | 67c | 34.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed No | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.