MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55e303cc23ec6c6ee5f266bdf4a4c6d9734886d6baa8fa7e929cc2d45122d345
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Minnesota Twins, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 24c | 13,712$3,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,268.78 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 11,397$8,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,682.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 2,430$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.9 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Minnesota Twins | 23c | 380$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Minnesota Twins | 30c | 275.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 270.33$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 260.2$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 255$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 143.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Minnesota Twins | 31c | 93.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Minnesota Twins | 26c | 90.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 69.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 64.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Minnesota Twins | 23c | 48.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Minnesota Twins | 25c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 44.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 24.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 75c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.