MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61d907a4e9842379ecb23642a700e6625ab83ccbe8e7888a3eba6cbe21aa446b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 2,836$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.66 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 61c | 1,230$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.64 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 1,210$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.68 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 48c | 1,046$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.44 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,044$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.12 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 905$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 11c | 575.41$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 39c | 542$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 51c | 490$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 475.59$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 301.04$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.04 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 64c | 235.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 49c | 103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 49c | 78.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 66.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ab…89acbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 31.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 28.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 62c | 25.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 53c | 25.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 48c | 23.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…f942backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.