World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55ffb6407a042a5dd841af86b5ee4a655036f50084681f0a8edfe8fbc59ef2c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,543$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 552.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 257.6$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 26c | 254.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…40a1backed Yes | 34c | 193.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 173.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 168.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked No | 79c | 137.13$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 132.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 12c | 124.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…2991backed Yes | 19c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 79c | 83.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 66.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 64.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 22c | 58.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 71c | 56.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…8374backed Yes | 26c | 47.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 75c | 39.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 38.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 31c | 34.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 32c | 31.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 67c | 29.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…1241backed Yes | 49c | 29.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 72c | 27.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 26.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 75c | 25.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 24.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 69c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 51c | 21.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 52c | 19.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 61c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.