Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x561e828eeb7d3d67b9674cf48f4e289ab0fc5ee4e82b43bef34c494fa57540ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,282$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 551.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed Yes | 5c | 504.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 18c | 430.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 6c | 416.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 5c | 299.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 291.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 32c | 270.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…8e36backed Yes | 8c | 258.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 25c | 214.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 19c | 190.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 9c | 187.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 7c | 181.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 19c | 177.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 12c | 161.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 159.7$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 143.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 136.8$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed Yes | 8c | 126.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 19c | 112.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 86.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 82.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…19e0backed No | 70c | 74.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…1b2fbacked Yes | 20c | 67.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 63.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b0…4041backed Yes | 34c | 57.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 49.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…371abacked Yes | 31c | 48.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 73c | 39.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 70c | 39.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 70c | 37.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…4e9abacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 70c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 70c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.