TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes74c1,345$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.8334624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No49c700$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.81,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No48c655.04$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.844,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d61…98e5backed Yes72c576.82$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.821553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes8c576.65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.9417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No5c512.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4229751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No16c483.88$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3359021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes64c431.61$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes19c374.77$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.581,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c354$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.665,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed Yes30c332.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.9214236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No17c277.02$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.293,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes39c266.86$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.8631943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes19c236.27$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.953,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3c8…95e2backed Yes70c224.76$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes34c200.72$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1233139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc64…37f0backed Yes28c186.68$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.93540%14 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No58c182.14$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.112,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No41c176.34$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.121,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes20c161.01$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.474047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c159.69$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.565,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes30c155.3$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1611343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb527…903dbacked Yes72c154.36$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.192326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c153.09$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes42c150.07$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2032…e43ebacked No56c139.32$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6518060%108 W · 72 L-21.2wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-16.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No53c135$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.084,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No46c134$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7952155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828b…87a6backed Yes14c133.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.887441.9%31 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c130$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.62,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.092,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes18c124.39$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5217231.4%54 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes14c118.75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.84,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3545…b7e0backed Yes11c110.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.162429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No47c107.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.441,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No65c93.49$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.631,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes30c87.38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes23c85.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.251936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c83.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.324,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes15c76.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5746743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes18c75.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8542643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3087…5250backed No62c73.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.371921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-56.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes42c71.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.9817553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4de2…978ebacked Yes34c69.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.271637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes23c69.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.861,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes19c66.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0766735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes76c65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4134067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1acf…d02ebacked No68c62.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5910834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes77c58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2189544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked No27c56.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes24c56.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.847832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes37c54.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5124238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.512068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes30c49.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9840739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes38c49.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.869439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes69c48.53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0124442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No76c48.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.052,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No61c48.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7638961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No32c48.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6944553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes23c48.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.065,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes67c45.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1199962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.452,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9980…a036backed Yes50c44.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.073560%21 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No37c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.981,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No80c35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No71c34.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4317555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes70c31.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5911362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No75c30.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7830168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.31,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No41c29.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.232,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd995…e6e1backed Yes62c27.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9774…34aebacked Yes50c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c3f…c9a9backed Yes54c22.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.191384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+44.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No66c21.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3831219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No78c21.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No76c21.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9544659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01f2…c3debacked No50c20.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1312538.4%48 W · 77 L-18.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-38.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No72c18.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7141258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d07…36bfbacked Yes73c14.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.972157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.