TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,029 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes0c5,024$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154429.5%13 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x828b…87a6backed Yes16c656.24$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.927441.9%31 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes51c626.3$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.1265749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No46c478.51$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.024,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes46c468.35$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.91,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes51c463.34$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.61,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes48c438.14$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.434624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes39c432.58$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.244,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No64c394$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.15,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c299.06$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9d61…98e5backed Yes70c295.29$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.381553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes70c284.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20061365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes33c278.47$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1117536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes26c253$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.432,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes55c223.4$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.851,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No54c208.56$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.931,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c206.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes53c203.61$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.921,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed No53c187.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.1320231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No51c163.85$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.972,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c162$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.123,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes32c160.56$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.965,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No54c158.76$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.353,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes41c154.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2511343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes78c151.78$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.0249547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No62c143.44$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.083,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.92,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No54c126.54$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.161,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba0…a083backed Yes40c123.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.210834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c114.73$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes40c112.17$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4531943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed No46c109.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7743515.2%66 W · 369 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No54c106$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3752155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed No49c102.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.421729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No48c96.45$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9329751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes21c96.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.554,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf430…f3c2backed No55c93.37$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.21952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid+30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes13c91.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9620230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes42c89.28$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.821,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No63c82.5$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed No59c81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4424053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes35c80.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8617231.4%54 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes47c79.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.61,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No74c78.89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2239968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9980…a036backed Yes31c78.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.633560%21 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed Yes45c76.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7954857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes18c74.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No59c72.11$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.624,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked Yes57c69.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6730168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes18c67.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2459125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes63c65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.941,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9838…8469backed Yes31c64.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205756.1%32 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes39c64.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9966926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes33c63.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5518837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3087…5250backed No48c62.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.641921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-56.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No70c61.55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes40c61.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.35837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No57c60.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.691,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No79c58.82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3542976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No64c53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.351553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes43c52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.161,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31dc…ce99backed Yes70c52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.310427.9%29 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No65c51.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.221,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8728649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5134934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7913…8ef6backed Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282650%13 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1523241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4de2…978ebacked Yes38c49.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes30c49.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No63c49.16$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.222,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes29c48.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3145236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes24c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.529439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe7f…7428backed Yes31c47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.578123.5%19 W · 62 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No65c44.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.542160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No63c43.53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.182,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No60c41.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6712374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05a…d78fbacked No60c41.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6712670.6%89 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.314,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes40c39.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e53…254cbacked Yes51c39.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204431.8%14 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ead…f333backed Yes28c38.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84531.1%14 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No41c37.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3259021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa516…b2ffbacked No54c35.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.43135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c35.34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.099,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No37c34.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.021,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No71c34.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2544659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No77c33.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7188973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4204…165abacked No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.335455.6%30 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec8b…2554backed Yes33c32.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6470%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No61c31.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4743563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed No77c30.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9511926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.71,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c29.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.783,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes45c29.87$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3243441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64b1…ef0dbacked Yes38c29.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.