TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,308 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes0c6,023$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114429.5%13 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba0…a083backed Yes3c1,772$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6910834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes25c1,122$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.734,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes32c472$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.581,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes38c390.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c353.43$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.641,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c327.21$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.475,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No77c324.36$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.431,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No77c307.29$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8421268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c289.98$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.222,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes15c287.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8610834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes36c278.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2917536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes36c257.71$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.771,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c217$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.175,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No72c216.81$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.493,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No65c201.71$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.411,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes30c200$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.521,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x291d…8e36backed Yes20c198.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.62205%1 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick23cpaid-78.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes34c194.64$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5573927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes32c190.53$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8917231.4%54 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c176.59$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.162,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes30c154.24$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.963,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c141$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.988,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No66c139.9$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.512,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No70c139$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.844,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c136.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes31c124.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2411343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c115.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2974023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No69c99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6939968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No62c86.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7946743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No75c86.1$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No79c84.56$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.481,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No66c81.33$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc3…19e0backed No67c81.29$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.611984.2%16 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d61…98e5backed Yes43c80.92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes23c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No67c79.15$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7488973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c76.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9283360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes22c72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8421930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1cb…af17backed Yes24c68.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.418442.9%36 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+27.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No65c67.21$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.772,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No62c66.94$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.374,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No71c63.81$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.211,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No62c62.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6151553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c62.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.437,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.553437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes41c60.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.665837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes40c59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.518837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No79c58.82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3142976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes40c55.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.81936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No72c54.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.293,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31dc…ce99backed Yes27c53.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5910427.9%29 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No70c51.09$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.122,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3534934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No65c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.61,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4de2…978ebacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20df…02eebacked No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.25650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa1f…af40backed Yes20c48.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104837.5%18 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes33c47.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8420230.2%61 W · 141 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No78c46.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1511664.7%75 W · 41 L-8.2wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed Yes31c46.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.554857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes30c46.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0345236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No69c43.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.452,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes35c42.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2165934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No64c41.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes34c40.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.854,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.143,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No65c38.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.431,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d46…f816backed No64c37.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.535851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes32c34.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0224434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No68c33.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes39c31.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9828649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.294,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No66c29.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.042,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No62c27.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5357264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No64c24.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9767336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7969…9fecbacked No79c24.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.047929.1%23 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-58.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No62c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1241258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No72c23.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4843859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf075…3f43backed No75c23.09$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.810866.7%72 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No63c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.517650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.11,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f6…a71bbacked No66c21.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.413366.7%22 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7426861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdff0…5865backed No78c20.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.636981.2%56 W · 13 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.311,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9171464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf430…f3c2backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.081952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid+30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4320…4a44backed No61c19.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.592536%9 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No66c17.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9362770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No65c15.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5579255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No78c15.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4539159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1359…7e7bbacked No78c15.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3811774.4%87 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick75cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No69c15.12$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.697251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No69c14.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.621,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No80c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.61,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.