Other European Leagues · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. FC Volendam: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5631a903a1a0479b8fa9e033bdb08472aedb281c6147bbefc6db0b6679263fc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 4,290$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,123.65 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 3,164$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.43 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 79c | 2,508$1,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,978.93 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 60c | 623$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.8 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 22c | 344.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.66 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 65c | 307.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 17c | 261.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.09 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0133…0ea9backed Over | 67c | 240.53$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 177$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…b42bbacked Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 95.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 32c | 90.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 473 | 25.4%120 W · 353 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 55c | 70.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…8b71backed Over | 70c | 64.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7985…ca1fbacked Under | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Under | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1459…b6c9backed Over | 62c | 39.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 65c | 29.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…fdcdbacked Over | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Volendam: O/U 2.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Volendam: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Volendam: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Volendam: O/U 3.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Volendam: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.