Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5631ff7ccc466abb148392e9d0c00ec1e9e92acbca01bd35ba81e0458243ef18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,344$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,075.94 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 903.51$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.53 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 8c | 810.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.87 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 583.33$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 573.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 475.47$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 387.73$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 346.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 274.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 261.8$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 56c | 233.15$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 12c | 227.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 8c | 191.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.37 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 151.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 47c | 133.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 16c | 128.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…2dc4backed Yes | 72c | 113.7$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 19c | 110.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 107.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 11c | 99.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 14c | 97.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 91.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…da6dbacked No | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 84.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 80.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 79.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 65c | 76.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes | 50c | 73.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…a4c9backed Yes | 20c | 71.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 24c | 71.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 70.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 57.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 71c | 53.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 33c | 49.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 44c | 45.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 70c | 41.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 40.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 34.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 76c | 32.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 25.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 25.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 80c | 25.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 23.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 66c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 79c | 15.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.