Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e931ba497580166e26248ee12a942f7fbce84ccab669dd0c8fd12ee2cf73e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 51c | 686.04$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.14 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked No | 46c | 630.56$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.65 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 480.56$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 434.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.59 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 387.17$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 353.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 344$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 343$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 49c | 309$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed No | 71c | 300.46$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 272.53$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 43c | 255.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 251.79$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 213.62$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 174.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 166.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 38c | 165.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 50c | 151.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 54c | 150.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.67 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 145.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 143.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 140.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 129.64$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 128.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 61c | 126$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…2dc4backed No | 57c | 123.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…a4c9backed Yes | 39c | 103.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 53c | 103.17$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 101.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 99.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…700cbacked Yes | 58c | 95.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 84.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 50c | 81.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 78.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 50c | 76.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 62c | 60.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked Yes | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 40c | 55.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 50c | 54.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 46c | 53.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 51.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 50.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 41c | 49.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 47.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…a4cabacked Yes | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 41c | 43.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 51c | 43.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 43.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 62c | 42.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 55c | 42.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 40.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 50c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed Yes | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 35.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…259dbacked Yes | 56c | 35.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…3b88backed No | 56c | 35.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 35.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 33c | 33.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 33.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…1303backed No | 67c | 30.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…e187backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 42c | 29.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 56c | 28.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6648…f69abacked No | 72c | 26.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 50c | 26.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 44c | 26.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 47c | 25.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 48c | 24.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 23.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 23.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 62c | 22.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 80c | 21.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 18.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…5ddfbacked No | 70c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.