Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00175b58c9f41a51383c796e437118a542286b284178c0e10087a0c8563a6cef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 67c | 1,961$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.23 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,739$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.91 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 29c | 758.94$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.35 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 635.87$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 603.46$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed No | 67c | 486.04$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.12 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 485.82$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.86 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 32c | 471$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.05 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 416.58$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 340.12$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 25c | 315.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 293.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 34c | 292.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 290.67$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 278.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 269$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 268.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 263.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 261$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 248.14$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 241.79$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 67c | 215$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 30c | 198.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 32c | 186.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 181.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 177.57$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 170$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 169.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 23c | 165$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…a4c9backed Yes | 21c | 159.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 63c | 152.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 150.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 147.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 31c | 136.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…870bbacked Yes | 66c | 132.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 69c | 121.16$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 113.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 38c | 112.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 13c | 107.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 47c | 97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 96.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 36c | 96.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 86.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 30c | 79.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 65c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 30c | 70.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 68c | 68.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 34c | 66.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 34c | 61.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 45c | 56.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 32c | 55.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked No | 80c | 55.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 55.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 53.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 51.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 50.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 67c | 46.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 29c | 43.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…2dc4backed No | 78c | 43.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 43.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 37c | 43.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 40.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 30c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 33c | 35.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 37c | 34.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 33.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 33.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 45c | 32.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 61c | 31.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 30.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 40c | 30.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.