College Football · resolved market
Spread: San Diego State (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x565c46cbab358b457013f80d50ddd9a526539bbdf125f197f336f4e54399ee80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaiiof San Diego State, Hawaii
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7189…b454backed Hawaii | 49c | 18,158$8,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,342.15 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed San Diego State | 52c | 8,727$4,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,531.75 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed San Diego State | 51c | 3,290$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.71 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed San Diego State | 52c | 3,011$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565.5 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Diego State | 51c | 2,906$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.96 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…9d25backed San Diego State | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +331.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Hawaii | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed San Diego State | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed San Diego State | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Diego State | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed San Diego State | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Hawaii | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…49efbacked Hawaii | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…f219backed San Diego State | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked San Diego State | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Hawaii | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…923bbacked Hawaii | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Hawaii | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego State (-6.5)this page
- O/U 50.5Under won
- San Diego State vs. HawaiiHawaii won
- San Diego State vs. Hawaii: 1H MoneylineHawaii won
- San Diego State vs. Hawaii: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: San Diego State (-7.5)Hawaii won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.