Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5674319a5c823d481f84530f32af8a8b5a2e08137e2dd5ac9063398597f979bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,416$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 636.51$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.3 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 6c | 583.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 6c | 459.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 6c | 425.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 21c | 388.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 7c | 364.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 7c | 364.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 20c | 340.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 246.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 64c | 219.89$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 8c | 209.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 209.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 184.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 34c | 175.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 10c | 166.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…1218backed Yes | 16c | 154.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 153.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 53c | 143$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 36c | 133$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 132.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 129.58$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 128$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 127$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 123$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 119.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 108$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 19c | 102.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 73c | 93.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 93.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 91.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 91.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 26c | 84.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 31c | 84.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 80.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 47c | 79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 64c | 78.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 17c | 73.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 39c | 73.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 58c | 61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 55.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 52.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 51.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 33c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 31c | 43.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 43c | 39.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 36c | 38.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 29.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 23.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 66c | 23.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 56c | 22.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 77c | 22.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 65c | 21.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fd…5d5ebacked Yes | 56c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…c32ebacked No | 54c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 66c | 18.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…5609backed No | 68c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 66c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.