Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbc09a4983432182a2c9184b6498e7a14d053fbdf10dd8ebaec14f11157f4988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,506$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 679.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 472.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 5c | 370.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.82 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 7c | 338.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.41 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 314.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 35c | 288.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 287.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 277.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.72 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 251.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 233.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked No | 7c | 202.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 52c | 177.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 175.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.05 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 11c | 175.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.96 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 161.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 75c | 160.32$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 17c | 156.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.31 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 145.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.47 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 70c | 141.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 123.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 36c | 121.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 12c | 105.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked Yes | 11c | 104.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 46c | 101$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked No | 75c | 98.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 16c | 89.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 16c | 75.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 16c | 68.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 23c | 44.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 67c | 31.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 60c | 30.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked No | 56c | 20.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 66c | 17.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 16.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.