Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7426b27d0f9d4ff7b9ef7792d3421463fb69c6e74be4dd010597af9626bdfda9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 1,370$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.69 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 847$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 619.58$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 46c | 304.31$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.71 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 278.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 255.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 246.94$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 209.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 209.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 160.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 42c | 157.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 35c | 148.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 139.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 54c | 133.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 126.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 118.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 44c | 117.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 27c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 100.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 94.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 63c | 93.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 87.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 77c | 76.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 75.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked No | 59c | 74.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 22c | 68.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 67.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 58.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 31c | 55.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 53.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 51.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 31c | 50.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 43c | 49.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 27c | 47.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 27c | 46.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…4633backed No | 48c | 45.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 59c | 40.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 39c | 38.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…bd37backed Yes | 43c | 35.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…6216backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 73c | 34.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 62c | 27.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 24.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 56c | 23.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdff…205cbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 78c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.