Mls · resolved market
Will Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5679f9c90e4757e8978cd804aecad9871866e8f769ada546ffedd25130cd45a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 4,952$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.21 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 8c | 2,212$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.57 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 15c | 1,925$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.11 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 1,457$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.24 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 23c | 1,100$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.1 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 3c | 1,077$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 13c | 1,045$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.04 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…f859backed Yes | 7c | 925$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 77c | 791$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 6c | 609.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 19c | 542.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Yes | 22c | 509.38$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 24c | 242.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 24c | 239.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 12c | 209.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Yes | 20c | 168.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 13c | 154.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Yes | 17c | 152.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4450…25f4backed Yes | 23c | 150.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f8…08c1backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…2e4cbacked Yes | 15c | 145.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 80c | 145.48$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Yes | 17c | 140.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 121.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 19c | 105.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 17c | 97.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 16c | 94.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 20c | 86.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 79c | 77.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 21c | 76.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 19c | 70.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 24c | 57.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 21c | 53.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 25c | 43.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 76c | 34.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 76c | 34.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.