Mls · resolved market
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41041399ffdf3e3bd4ddf943090a07ad17c876c2ca7fc7fda457a44eff49de05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 24c | 2,200$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.28 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 10c | 1,091$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.54 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697c…4126backed Yes | 4c | 716.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Yes | 19c | 527.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 26c | 489.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.42 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 19c | 348.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Yes | 36c | 326.06$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…3211backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 78c | 257.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 74c | 236$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 19c | 233.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 19c | 213.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 19c | 211.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 79c | 209.22$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 64c | 181.26$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 71c | 175.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e93…2f9dbacked Yes | 6c | 164.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 15c | 164.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…82fcbacked Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…77dfbacked Yes | 37c | 135.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 21c | 110.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Yes | 18c | 99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 71c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 15c | 83.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 21c | 80.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 75c | 73.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 75c | 62.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 75c | 62.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 75c | 62.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 29c | 61.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked Yes | 26c | 61.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 27c | 57.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…26efbacked No | 72c | 43.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 38.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 74c | 32.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 77c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 69c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed No | 78c | 22.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.