La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56b3b2946aedc94e244b58b4378621ecfd457acce39104616ae282bc7e2f8884
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 1,798$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.31 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 1,618$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.25 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed Under | 51c | 1,570$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 35c | 1,422$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 71c | 1,025$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.2 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 62c | 411.14$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.73 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…e974backed Over | 39c | 255.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 8c | 222$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 53c | 177.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 175 | 62.9%110 W · 65 L | +32.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Under | 60c | 173.63$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 52c | 169.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 417 | 51.8%216 W · 201 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Under | 48c | 167.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 120.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 19c | 118.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 65c | 107.57$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…8a0dbacked Under | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 55c | 69.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 65.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1,176 | 51.9%610 W · 566 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…1e46backed Under | 65c | 61.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Under | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 58c | 40.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed Over | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 59c | 24.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 59c | 18.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 277 | 58.5%162 W · 115 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…92f7backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Castellón: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Castellón: CD Castellón O/U 1.5Under won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5Under won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5Under won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Castellón: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol B won
- Spread: CD Castellón (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol B won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.