Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-09-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56c2c6b1ef69c5754b38f05609736e7c5e3b828d3742058c208a09be2d283d91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 14c | 8,901$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.97 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.87 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 79c | 4,000$3,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 78c | 3,965$3,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.81 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 78c | 3,521$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.62 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 78c | 3,278$2,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.43 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 24c | 3,050$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 71c | 2,880$2,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.99 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 2,639$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.59 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 73c | 2,391$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.34 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 76c | 1,863$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.22 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,819$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.82 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 1,735$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.66 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 22c | 1,545$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 80c | 1,163$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.56 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 20c | 1,052$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.66 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 78c | 1,050$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes | 24c | 828$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 38c | 700$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed No | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 26c | 500$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 14c | 464.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 79c | 253.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 21c | 220.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 23c | 218.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 80c | 215$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebb…593dbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…65e1backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 21c | 170$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5df…fed4backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 23c | 145.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…d12ebacked No | 76c | 131.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…0237backed No | 78c | 127.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…0bc9backed No | 79c | 118.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 76c | 100.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001b…1bd7backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 65 | 13.8%9 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…27bcbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 19c | 94.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked No | 77c | 86.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed No | 79c | 86.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 76c | 85.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…df1bbacked No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…3f8abacked Yes | 34c | 58.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…79e4backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 76c | 37.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…06a9backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-09-25?this page
- Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25?Yes won
- Will FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. FC Porto end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.