Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA Bruins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56fc6c4df442b29450da68ee7de4fd4166f943e82bb0acc10d00a08ca50e5e84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCLA Bruinsof Cal Poly Mustangs, UCLA Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 5c | 1,196$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 10c | 1,100$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…fdd3backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 12c | 1,074$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 2c | 908.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 2c | 739.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4dc1backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 6c | 673.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 7c | 580$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 3c | 517.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 10c | 380.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 10c | 319$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…f7dcbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA Bruinsthis page
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA Bruins: O/U 161.5Over won
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA Bruins: O/U 162.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.