Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA Bruins: O/U 161.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cc49519bb2ad084cebe95fa8beb4119a540d72a5757cf0c40657217db063730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 49c | 3,077$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,262$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.32 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 699$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.52 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d05…a9cabacked Under | 47c | 280$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 224$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 49c | 204.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 210 | 50%105 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 45c | 97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 50c | 82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 52c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 52c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 46c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 52c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 50c | 42.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Over | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Over | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7c…1214backed Over | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Over | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…c5d2backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Over | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA Bruins: O/U 161.5this page
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA BruinsUCLA Bruins won
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA Bruins: O/U 162.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.