Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA Bruins: O/U 162.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf478a7a06022ddec054e35aa3291076770a3182391e93a734ca1f7029ac77b1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Under | 53c | 123$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 53c | 119$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 55c | 107$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Under | 48c | 97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Under | 48c | 84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Under | 48c | 79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 52c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 48c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Over | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Over | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Over | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Over | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…25dbbacked Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4390…e842backed Over | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Over | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Over | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…4293backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA Bruins: O/U 162.5this page
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA BruinsUCLA Bruins won
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. UCLA Bruins: O/U 161.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.