Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x570cfe84a1505bf6c7849f03b52e726a205f1d5395d608431a1a0f835e32c51c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 5c | 2,562$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 937.55$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 550.61$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 63c | 396.89$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.09 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 377.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…0288backed Yes | 37c | 368.1$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 11c | 361.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdd…f298backed No | 4c | 338.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 332.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 62c | 327.35$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.94 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 20c | 310.68$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.14 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 300.17$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.13 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 295.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 285.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.35 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 46c | 262.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.95 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 228.53$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 176.85$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 149.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…8ad6backed No | 75c | 147.79$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 144.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 37c | 143.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 139.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 78c | 117.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed No | 66c | 110.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 21c | 104.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 104.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 100.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 14c | 99.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.48 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 75c | 85.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 54c | 82.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 79c | 77.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 74c | 74.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 71.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 16c | 69.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…30d9backed Yes | 44c | 68.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 34c | 60.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 57.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 56c | 47.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 35c | 43.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…af2abacked No | 54c | 39.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 77c | 38.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 50c | 38.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 75c | 33.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 75c | 33.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 73c | 33.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 61c | 31.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 30.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 74c | 30.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 26.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…cb9fbacked No | 74c | 25.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 77c | 25.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 24.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 69c | 24.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 73c | 22.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 73c | 20.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 70c | 18.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…38e4backed No | 77c | 18.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 70c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 63c | 16.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 14.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.