Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae472bfeff6a4875421940ecd1af956deeb277ebb4705f5929c70a199f6438ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 0c | 14,402$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 59c | 644.18$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.03 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 455.2$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 62c | 382.57$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 44c | 353.15$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.83 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 70c | 336.59$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 304.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 40c | 298.23$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 48c | 280.77$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.01 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 275.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 57c | 253.74$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 237.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 225.7$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 55c | 218.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 201.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 65c | 198.51$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 48c | 191.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 18c | 157.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 147.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 44c | 143.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 55c | 137.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 136.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…30d9backed Yes | 50c | 124.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 63c | 105.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed No | 49c | 102.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 97.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 41c | 95.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 44c | 94.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 93.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 89.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…95fcbacked No | 49c | 82.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 55c | 79.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 44c | 76.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 76.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21c…8828backed Yes | 44c | 69.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 54c | 67.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 50c | 66.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…bf09backed No | 48c | 62.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 49c | 61.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 64c | 59.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 50c | 57.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 40c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 56c | 55.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 51c | 54.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 61c | 51.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 51.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05bd…72e2backed No | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked Yes | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed Yes | 54c | 49.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…9594backed Yes | 44c | 47.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 43c | 47.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 48c | 45.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 27c | 43.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…bc88backed Yes | 62c | 43.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 45c | 42.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes | 59c | 40.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 40.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…1096backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 46c | 38.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 63c | 37.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed Yes | 49c | 37.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 47c | 36.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddd…1875backed Yes | 56c | 36.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d7…ab50backed Yes | 57c | 36.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 51c | 35.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 39c | 33.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 35c | 33.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 50c | 32.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 41c | 32.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 31.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 56c | 31.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 36c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0343…cb9fbacked No | 66c | 29.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 52c | 29.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 57c | 27.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 62c | 24.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 51c | 23.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…f461backed Yes | 54c | 23.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 21.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 21.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 59c | 21.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x613f…6463backed No | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 70c | 19.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 58c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 69c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.